How 5 Countries Could Become 14

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Slowly, the map of the Middle East could be redrawn. An analysis by Robin Wright.Related Article »

SPILLOVER TO IRAQ

In the simplest of several possibilities,

northern Kurds join Syrian Kurds. Many

central areas, dominated by Sunnis, join

Syria’s Sunnis. And the south becomes

Shiitestan. It’s not likely to be so clean.

In a more powerful twist, all or part of South Yemen could

then become part of Saudi Arabia. Nearly all Saudi commerce

is via sea, and direct access to the Arabian Sea would

diminish dependence on the Persian Gulf — and fears of

Iran’s ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz.

YEMEN SPLITS

The poorest Arab country

could break (again) into two

pieces following a potential

referendum in South

Yemen on independence.

LIBYA UNGLUED

As a result of powerful

tribal and r